Global Vision/ICM poll on the Reform Treaty

In November 2007 Global Vision commissioned an ICM poll on the public's views on the Reform Treaty and on Britain's relationship with the EU.

Public want a referendum on the Reform Treaty...

People were very unclear when asked how the Reform Treaty differed from the former EU Constitutional Treaty. Well over 1/3^rd of respondents did not feel confident to answer the question. Of those who did respond, a quarter thought it was effectively the same whilst 30% thought they were similar (though with important differences) and just 9% believed the Reform treaty was very different from the Constitution.

When asked whether there should be a referendum on the Reform Treaty nearly three quarters said there should be, whilst less than 20% thought not.

...and support a looser relationship with the EU

Concerning Britain's relationship with the EU, people were given a choice of three options. The first was to stay within the EU and participate in further integration. The second was to have a looser relationship with the EU based on trade and cooperation, whilst opting out of political and economic union. And the third was to withdraw from the EU altogether.

Only 24% wanted to stay in, whilst 47% chose the looser relationship option and 23% wished to leave altogether. The residual 6% were in various states of uncertainty. Overall, therefore, nearly three-quarters of those respondents expressing a preference wanted radical change - with the ‘looser relationship' based on free trade the option of choice. The finding that the ‘looser relationship' is the option of choice is consistent with all our previous polling on this issue.

Results

Question 1: The EU leaders agreed the text of the new Reform Treaty in Lisbon in October. Based on what you have heard, how much do you think it compares with the former EU Constitutional Treaty that was dropped in 2005?

	% response
It is effectively the same	25
It is similar - but there are important differences	30
It is very different	9
Don't know	35

Question 2: Tony Blair promised a referendum on the EU Constitutional Treaty. The current Prime Minister Gordon Brown is planning to pass the new Treaty in to British law, without a referendum. Do you think there should or should not be a referendum?

	% response
Should	73
Should not	18
Don't know	9

Question 3: If the UK could have the ideal relationship with Europe, which of the following would you yourself prefer?

	% response
The UK staying a full EU member on current terms, participating in further integration	24
The UK having a looser arrangement with Europe, maintaining free trade and cooperation on common policies, but opting out of political and economic union	47
Withdrawing from the EU altogether	23
None of these	1
Don't know	5

Download the full ICM Poll

Technical note: These polls were conducted by ICM Research on behalf of Global Vision. The fieldwork, on 1010 respondents, was conducted on 9-11 November 2007.

RL, December 2007